We Predict the Golden Globe Winners – and Have a Drink

The 72nd Annual Golden Globes air Sunday night at 8pm on NBC (and we’ll be live blogging!), and just like with the Emmys, we have our favorites and our predictions. (Well, Kirsten Leigh has her favorites. Kristin Marie apparently didn’t watch TV this year and got a cocktail instead.) Read on to find out who should win, who will win, and how Kristin likes her drinks.

Best TV Series, Drama

  • Downton Abbey
  • The Affair
  • Game of Thrones
  • House of Cards
  • The Good Wife

KM: This list is equally divided among shows I didn’t watch (The Affair and House of Cards), shows that I wasn’t impressed with this season (Downton Abbey and Game of Thrones) and shows that are named The Good Wife.

KL: Since the Globes clarified the rules on series versus mini-series, some of the powerhouses of 2014 don’t appear here. I wouldn’t necessarily call these the five best drama series of the year, but it’s what we have to work with. Game of Thrones is the most straight-up entertaining, but best? Eh. The Affair was fantastic but labored a bit under its structure; I have high hopes for next year. Of these, I’m going to say that The Good Wife deserves the win.

KM wants: The Good Wife

KL wants: The Good Wife

Will Be: House of Cards (i.e., the only one neither of us has seen) (KM: It’s on the list…)

Best Actress in a TV Series, Drama

  • Julianna Margulies, The Good Wife
  • Viola Davis, How to Get Away with Murder
  • Claire Danes, Homeland
  • Robin Wright, House of Cards
  • Ruth Wilson, The Affair

KM: Viola Davis is super great but she doesn’t deserve this nomination. She has no business in this category with Margulies and Danes. It barely seems to qualify as the same profession. I didn’t see The Affair so I can’t speak to that. I think I’d give it to Danes for this season of Homeland. She had a LOT to cover this season and she handled it really well.

KL: Man, Claire Danes and Julianna Margulies turn out such fantastic work year after year that it almost pains me to pass over them here, but Ruth Wilson was mesmerizing in The Affair. The performance had such range: not only was she tasked with performing a complex, grieving character, she had to play someone else’s impression of that character. It was a difficult role perfectly realized.

KM wants: Claire Danes

KL wants: Ruth Wilson

Will be: Since all but Davis and Wilson are repeat winners, it could be a reputation win for Davis. Especially if the voters haven’t seen the show.

Best Actor in a TV Series, Drama

  • Kevin Spacey, House of Cards
  • Clive Owen, The Knick
  • James Spader, The Blacklist
  • Dominic West, The Affair
  • Liev Schreiber, Ray Donovan

KM: Why in God’s name was James Spader nominated? I mean, I watch The Blacklist. I like it; I’m not ashamed. But there are really two gears for his character: mysterious and sort-of-nice-for-his-own-personal-gain, and mysterious and killing someone. The only other nominee I’ve watched in this category is Clive Owen in The Knick. He was fantastic. Opium dens, cocaine injections in between his toes – oh, and he was even a doctor for a bit.

KL: This is another category that leaves out some of the most spectacular performances on TV. Dominic West was often very good, but it wasn’t the best I’ve seen him. On the other hand, Clive Owen was spectacular in every single frame of The Knick. It was a magnetic character to begin with, but Owen elevated it with a combination of physicality and passion.

KM wants: Clive Owen *shrug* *sip*

KL wants: Clive Owen

Will be: Kevin Spacey. Because last year would have been his year if not for Bryan Cranston.

Best TV Series, Musical or Comedy

  • Orange is the New Black
  • Girls
  • Jane the Virgin
  • Transparent
  • Silicon Valley

KM: I’m starting to think that I didn’t watch any TV last year. I watched Girls and Silicon Valley but can’t even enthusiastically say I enjoyed them. I pick Brooklyn Nine-Nine.

KL: Dramedies have officially pushed out the straight-up comedies. Transparent and Orange is the New Black were both wonderful and exquisitely crafted this year, but calling either a comedy is a stretch. Girls’ third season wasn’t its best, or the best season nominated. But, like most of the critical community, I was completely taken by Jane the Virgin and its sense of whimsy, breakneck plot movement, and numerous physical gags. I’m rooting for the funny.

KM wants: A nomination for Brooklyn Nine-Nine. And a cocktail.

KL wants: Some of these to be moved to the drama category. But, if forced to pick, Jane the Virgin because it makes me giggle.

Will be: Orange is the New Black

Best Actress in a TV Series, Musical or Comedy

  • Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Veep
  • Edie Falco, Nurse Jackie
  • Gina Rodriguez, Jane the Virgin
  • Lena Dunham, Girls
  • Taylor Schilling, Orange is the New Black

KM: I think Lena Dunham is an extremely talented woman. I don’t think she’s an amazing actress. That’s all I’ve got.

KL: Gina Rodriguez is a breakout talent for sure, and I think she’s magnetic, but Julia Louis-Dreyfus nailed it this year in Veep. Part of this was because the writing tightened up around her, sure, but her excellent timing and delivery was complemented by complete mastery of her character’s body language.

KM wants: Gina Rodriguez, because why not. When in doubt,vote for the new guy. And an umbrella for my cocktail.

KL wants: Julia Louis-Dreyfus

Will Be: Julia Louis-Dreyfus

Best Actor in a TV Series, Musical or Comedy

  • Don Cheadle, House of Lies
  • William H. Macy, Shameless
  • Ricky Gervais, Derek
  • Jeffrey Tambor, Transparent
  • Louis C.K., Louie

KM: Good for Showtime! I honestly didn’t think anyone watched House of Lies or Shameless.

KL: As I said in my picks for nominations, the Globes and I do not think the same things are funny. That said, I’m really happy to see both Tambor and Louis C.K. here. Both are on shows that are innovative: Transparent for its content and Louie for its form. Tambor’s casting as a man transitioning to a woman may have been controversial on some level, but after seeing the delicacy and sincerity of his performance, the choice makes sense.

KM wants: To have seen any of these. Seriously. I’ve got nothing. Anyone have cocktail straws?

KL wants: Jeffrey Tambor

Will Be: Louis C.K., and the man deserves the recognition.

Best TV Movie or Mini-Series

  • Olive Kitteridge
  • Fargo
  • The Missing
  • True Detective
  • The Normal Heart

KM: Was Olive Kitteridge a live action American Girl doll movie? No? Oh… The Normal Heart and True Detective were both affecting and moving. No matter how nonsensically obtuse the end was, I think True Detective is going to win it.

KL: Here lie the gems of 2014, but the best – The Honorable Woman – was criminally overlooked. This is where True Detective and Fargo are finally forced to battle it out after manipulating themselves into different categories all awards season, and if I got a vote, I would cast it for Fargo. Both had stellar acting, deft writing, and intriguing stories, but Fargo delivered on its promise all the way through, where True Detective wandered into the weeds a few times too many.

KM wants: True Detective

KL wants: Fargo

Will Be: True Detective by a hair.

Best Actress in a Mini-Series or TV Movie

  • Jessica Lange, American Horror Story: Freak Show
  • Maggie Gyllenhaal, The Honorable Woman
  • Frances McDormand, Olive Kitteridge
  • Allison Tolman, Fargo
  • Frances O’Connor, The Missing

KM: I swear, I watched a lot of TV this year. I watched none of these. The absence of real, actual female characters in True Detective is well documented and The Normal Heart was, understandably, dude-focused. Since those were the only of the nominees I watched in the first place…

KL: Alison Tolman was my pick for Best Supporting Actress hands down, but since she ended up in the lead category (I guess, of the women on Fargo, she was the most prominent), she gets edged out by Maggie Gyllenhaal. The role of Nessa Stein was a once-in-a-lifetime one, and it forced Gyllenhaal to simultaneously display such a complicated blend of strength and fragility that her performance is permanently etched on my brain. That said, both Franceses were also absolutely breathtaking.

KM wants: Is it too soon for a second cocktail?

KL wants: Maggie Gyllenhaal

Will Be: Frances McDormand. Olive Kitteridge was her passion project and it would have collapsed without her at the center.

Best Actor in a Mini-Series or TV Movie

  • Martin Freeman, Fargo
  • Matthew McConaughey, True Detective
  • Woody Harrelson, True Detective
  • Billy Bob Thornton, Fargo
  • Mark Ruffalo, The Normal Heart

KM: I think McConaughey and Harrelson will split the True Detective vote and I found them both insufferable. That could be a situation of not being about to separate character from performance, but I’m comfortable with that. I think Mark Ruffalo was swell but I preferred Matt Bomer’s (non-leading) performance.

KL: I would like to point out that I called these nominees exactly – but really, it was so obvious that I really shouldn’t brag. (KM: Yeah, you should.) Unlike Kristin Marie, I dug both McConaughey and Harrelson in True Detective, but McConaughey has gotten enough accolades for his role, so I’m rooting for Lorne Malvo, aka Billy Bob Thornton, the most amoral criminal to grace the small screen this year. Martin Freeman was equally as fantastic, but the cold, playful glimmer in Thornton’s eye as he proved repeatedly that he was the smartest guy in the room was perfect.

KM wants: Some bar snacks. The stars drink at this ceremony, right?

KL wants: Billy Bob Thornton

Will Be: Matthew McConaughey

Best Supporting Actress in a Series, Mini-Series or TV Movie

  • Kathy Bates, American Horror Story: Freak Show
  • Uzo Aduba, Orange is the New Black
  • Joanne Froggatt, Downton Abbey
  • Michelle Monaghan, True Detective
  • Allison Janney, Mom

KM: I feel like the people who voted for Michelle Monaghan’s performance must have skipped actually watching True Detective. It’s nothing against her, it’s just the role didn’t have enough meat to it to generate a worthy performance. Joanne Froggatt took what could have been a trite, overwrought storyline and made it beautiful and painful. She’s my vote.

KL: As I mentioned above, in my brain Alison Tolman had this in the bag until she didn’t. Kathy Bates brought heart to a simplistic role on AHS: Freak Show, and nobody does pained silence better than Joanne Froggatt. But Uzo Aduba, as the oft-victimized Crazy Eyes, has the hardest job to do of any of the nominees: make a character that, on paper, is a simplistic stereotype into a fully realized human being with a sharp inner longing.

KM Wants: Joanne Froggatt

KL Wants: Uzo Aduba

Will Be: Uzo Aduba

Best Supporting Actor in a Series, Mini-Series or TV Movie

  • Bill Murray, Olive Kitteridge
  • Jon Voight, Ray Donovan
  • Matt Bomer, The Normal Heart
  • Alan Cumming, The Good Wife
  • Colin Hanks, Fargo

KM: Remember when Matt Bomer was that guy from Chuck? No, just me? Oh… Anyway, he was gorgeous in The Normal Heart and not in the same way that he was gorgeous in his beautiful suits in White Collar or in much less in Magic Mike. His performance was the heartbreaking center of a film that wasn’t centered on him.

KL: Alan Cumming is a scene stealer for sure, but he took the slot I thought should have gone to Matt Czuchry. Bill Murray was excellent in his brief appearance in Olive Kitteridge, but I’m not sure that wasn’t just excellent casting. It comes down to Colin Hanks versus Matt Bomer for me: both were the decent, emotional centers of powerful ensemble casts. What Bomer did in a TV movie, Hanks had to sustain over an entire season, but the scene were Bomer breaks down in the shower haunted me for a long time after the credits rolled.

KM wants: Matt Bomer. With a side of vodka and tonic.

KL wants: Matt Bomer

Will Be: Matt Bomer. By the sheer force of our wills.